ASCE has honored Abdolmajid Erfani, S.M.ASCE; Zihui Ma, S.M.ASCE; Qingbin Cui, A.M.ASCE; and Gregory B. Baecher, Ph.D., NAE, Dist.M.ASCE, with the 2024 Thomas Fitch Rowland Prize for the paper “Ex Post Project Risk Assessment: Method and Empirical Study,” published in the December 2022 issue of Journal of Construction Engineering and Management.
Risk analyses are a vital aspect for large and complex construction projects, given their considerable uncertainties. However, research comparing risks identified before projects start with those realized afterward are rare. This leaves important questions unanswered, such as (1) To what extent are risks properly identified before the start? (2) Which risk identification methods provide the best accuracy? and (3) Which risk team behaviors are correlated with the best project time and cost performances?
In this article the authors answer these questions. They reviewed risk registers for 11 transportation projects ranging in cost from $600 million to $5 billion in seven U.S. states using design-bid-build, design-build, and public-private-partnership delivery methods. Each risk identified before the project start was tracked to the end to ascertain whether the risk was realized or dismissed. Additional risks identified during construction were placed in a separate category and tracked in a similar manner. The authors obtained results using finite-state automaton, a computational model widely used in computer science, biology, and other disciplines, but rarely used in construction engineering and management. The methodology was clearly and systematically explained, and the conclusions are credible and immediately implementable to produce consequential improvements.
The Thomas Fitch Rowland Prize recognizes papers whose author describes in detail accomplished works of construction or those which are valuable contributions to construction management and construction engineering.
